Forecasts For Winter 2011/12 - By Chas: Updated 01/12/2011

As discussed in our article at the beginning of November (see below), there was a great deal of media hype during the autumn regarding this winter and the chances of whether it is going to be another cold one. All the forecasts are now out and there are a variety of suggested outcomes, meaning that there is perhaps no strong signal for either a cold or mild winter.

Those forecasts suggesting a cold November, have been very wide of the mark, as we experienced one of the mildest Novembers on record. Those suggesting a bitterly cold December also look unlikely to come to fruition, though it has to be said that there is still the chance of a pattern change from mid-month and the jury is out on what kind of weather we can expect for the second half of the month, with cool and unsettled weather likely for the first week at least and any lying snow restricted to the mountains of North Wales.

The Weather Outlook website weather forecast, issued by Brian Gaze yesterday, is suggesting a near to average winter and his overview states.... "A close to average winter is forecast with a weak bias towards slightly below normal temperatures over the three month period. Despite temperatures close to the average over the three month period as a whole, some colder spells are expected to bring a risk of some snow to all parts of the country, especially the north and east." (See http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast for the full forecast).

Another forecast worth keeping an eye on is the Netweather.tv forecast and this can be viewed here. They are suggesting a progressively colder winter.

My thoughts are on similar lines to the Brian Gaze forecast above, though I still think there is a chance of a significant cold spell developing towards the end of December / early January. It would be unusual for us to get 4 cold winters on the trot, so I would also not be too suprised if the winter as a whole ended up being a bit milder than average. All long range forecasts are educated guesses and the weather has a habit of making fools out of forecasters, so it will be fascinating to see how this winter turns out.

I'll update this page towards the end of December.

Original Article From 02/11/2011:
After a run of 3 rather cold winters, there has been a great deal of hype in the printed media over recent weeks regarding whether this winter will be another cold one. The expectation of another severe winter has now been raised by newspapers such as the Daily Express. However, seasonal weather forecasts are often little more than educated guess work and no-one really knows what is going to happen. The Met Office have some of the most powerful computers in the world and they have stopped issuing seasonal forecasts to the public, mostly due to mis-interpretation by the media, so if they cannot do it, it is difficult to see how anyone can.

So, where do all these media reports come from – well, there are a variety of companies and individuals having a go at long range forecasting and I’m going to go through some of the more high profile ones and also provide some thoughts on what we might expect here in Abersoch. In no particular order ....

1 – Exacta Weather. This private weather company is primarily responsible for the media hype regarding the potential for another cold and snowy winter. Initially they were suggesting widespread heavy snowfalls and low temperatures, with a slight backtrack on their recent update. However, if this forecast is correct then the November to February period would generally still see plenty of snowfall and low temperatures.  Their latest winter forecast is available on their website at:
http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

2 – Positive Weather Solutions – This company is often quoted in the printed media and has produced some over the top forecasts in the past, however, they are suggesting an unremarkable winter with some cold and snowy weather in December, an unremarkable January and a generally milder February. Their latest forecast can be read in full on their website: http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Long-Range-Forecast.php

3 – Netweather. This is a very popular weather forum and forecasting website and in my opinion, a very good one. They reached notoriety this year by suggesting this summer was going to be a repeat of 1976, which was some way off the mark, but as suggested above, long range forecasting is very difficult. For this winter, they have not yet issued their forecast, but have posted some initial thoughts which suggest cold weather.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-thoughts-2011;sess=

4 – Weather Action – this is another private company run by Piers Corbyn that has produced a lot of headlines in the printed media over recent years. They use a forecasting method using sun spot cycles. They have not yet publically released their forecast for the winter, but have publically berated the Exacta severe weather forecast  as “baseless hype from a gaggle of wannabes”. The Weather Action site can be viewed here.
http://www.weatheraction.com

5 – The Weather Outlook (TWO) – this is another popular website and forum and its owner Brian Gaze, has a reasonable track record at seasonal forecasting. He releases his forecast towards the end of November, but has recently issued some initial thoughts. He is suggesting that things are finely balanced at the moment, but perhaps there is a higher chance of a slightly milder winter this year. His reasoning is well worth a read – so check it out here:

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1821

6 – Met Office. The Met Office don’t produce publically available seasonal forecasts anymore but they do produce publically available raw data products showing probabilities of cold / warm temperatures, however taken on their own, they are of limited value. At the time of writing, these maps are showing no clear signal for either a cold or mild winter.

7 – Joe Bastardi – Joe is an American Meteorologist, formerly of a company called Accuweather and now of Weatherbell. Joe used to produce a blog on the forecasts for NW Europe and sometimes got it right, however, since his move to Weatherbell, his comments are less public. I’ll post his forecast when it is available.

8 - Weatheronline. Another popular site with a large selection of weather resources. They are suggesting a cold winter.
Their forecast can be viewed here:
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=seasonaloutlook&DAY=20111031

So, what about the Abersoch.co.uk winter weather forecast? Well, I am tending to think that a slightly colder winter than average overall is certainly a possibility, though perhaps without the extreme cold that we saw here in NW Wales in December 2010. It would be unusual for us to get a fourth consecutive below average winter, however, the recent run of 5 poor summers has shown that we can get stuck in a rut when it comes to seasonal weather patterns. I'll be watching Brian Gaze's forecast updates on The Weather Outlook website with interest, as I think he has a decent recent record as a long range weather forecaster.

I'll issue an update to this article during November and our winter forecast guess-timate will be published later in the month.

Chas Myers 02/11/2011

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