Forecast For Abersoch : Thursday 2nd May, 2024 - Issued at 7.20am by Chas

Headline Summary: OK This Morning - Shower Risk This Afternoon & Evening.

Bore da - Good morning from Abersoch... Wednesday saw some very pleasant conditions for a time, with some warm spells of sunshine in the morning, but with more in the way of cloud arriving for the afternoon. The lack of wind helped to bring that warmer feel and today could be noticeably warmer for a time.

There is a lot of rain to the south of us this morning, affecting an arc running from central parts of Ireland, S Wales and into parts of England. We will be to the north of this during the morning, but we may see some showers slide into our vicinity from the southeast this afternoon and evening, with the risk of one or two downpours later. A front will be close by tomorrow, so we could see some damp weather, but, we could see an improvement on Saturday. As for the rest of the holiday weekend, the situation remains finely poised and the chopping and changing of the day to day detail is expected to continue...

Today: Thursday: Early low cloud affecting the area but dry this morning and once the low cloud has lifted, we should see a mix of variable amounts of cloud along with some spells of warm sunshine potentially developing, though there will be a noticeable breeze from a northerly quarter. The breeze could become light and variable for a time early in the afternoon, so if it is still bright during that period, it could become noticeably warmer, with temperatures perhaps reaching 16c. More in the way of cloud thereafter, with the shower risk increasing for the second half of the afternoon and we may see some heavier rain this evening and for a time overnight. Moderate southwesterly winds overnight. Uncertainties today are numerous and include sunshine amounts, the winds behaviour and the timing of the arrival of the showers.

Friday: A front may still be close by on Friday, so plenty of cloud and some damp weather is expected with some spells of rain or drizzle coming and going throught the day and evening. Winds from the southwest and moderate to fresh. Not as warm on this day with temperatures 10c to 11c.

Saturday: There is still some some cautious optimism for Saturday, with the chance of a dry and bright day developing after the clearance of some early cloud and showers. Winds from the south or southwest and up to moderate. Sheltered spots doing quite well for warmth during the afternoon.

Sunday: There remains plenty of uncertainty. Low pressure may not be too far away to the south of Britain, bringing the potential for showers to move up into the UK - however, whether they will affect us here in NW Wales, is the big question. We may see a breeze with an easterly element, which could become light, so if there are brighter spells, it could become quite warm.

Monday: There are also big question marks on Monday, but there is now a chance of it being a decent day. More on this tomorrow.

Outlook: A trend for high pressure to become more influential for the period from Tuesday to Thursday, so potentially dry and bright and temperatures may be warm after midweek.

Extended Outlook: The outlook for the period from Friday 10th May to Monday 13th May ... is for more of an influence from high pressure, bringing the chance of a settled spell.

Charts below are a snapshot from the major models. Note that anything beyond about 5 days is pretty speculative - so treat all extended charts with caution...

GFS at 144hrs copyright Meteociel.fr		UKMO at 144hrs copyright Meteociel.fr		ECMWF at 144hrs copyright Meteociel.fr

GFS at 192hrs copyright Meteociel.fr				ECMWF at 192hrs copyright Meteociel.fr

GFS at 10 days copyright Meteociel.fr				ECMWF at 10 days copyright Meteociel.fr

For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.

Tweets by abersochdotco  

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Useful Weather Forecasting Links:

Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com

BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846

UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk

Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com

Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com

Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv

Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk