Forecast For Abersoch : Saturday 12th October, 2024 - Issued at 8.10am by Chas

Headline Summary: Mostly Dry Start Then Shower Risk Increasing.

Bore da - Good morning from Abersoch... although there have been some showers not too far away early this morning, we should see some dry weather this morning before the risk of showers increases from the late morning and through the afternoon, however, it will be a lottery scenario, so there will be further drier and brighter periods too. A transient ridge of high pressure is set to bring a more settled day for tomorrow, before fronts return overnight, bringing rain and the likelihood of a cloudy start to Monday. Thereafter, low pressure to the west of Brtain will be feeding in mild and changeable conditons into Pen Llyn, with Wednesday perhaps being one of the wetter days...

Remember to check out the Abersoch Hydro webcam on the main beach, providing you with 8 different views where you can see for yourself the sea and weather conditions on the main beach... click here...

Today: Saturday: Dry for a time this morning with some bright periods possible but the risk of showers will increase from late morning onwards - but as mentioned above, it will be a lottery scenario so it is unlikely to be wet all afternoon and there is a chance of us seeing more dry weather than showers. A strong to gale force wind from a westerly quarter will be picking up during the day, veering northwesterly by the evening. Feeling chilly in the wind and air temperatures may get to between 12c and 13c. Clear spells overnight with a breeze from a northerly quarter and air temperatures may dip close to frost levels in very sheltered spots.

Sunday: A mostly fine day with variable in direction, light to moderate winds and plenty of sunshine is expected. Temperatures will again be no great shakes, perhaps getting up to about 13c, but the sunshine should feel very pleasant. Cloudier and windier by evening and some late evening rain is a possibility and the wind may become strong from the south-southeast by then too. Rain overnight with strong winds from the southeast and becoming milder.

Monday: Some uncertainty for Monday but after a cloudy and damp start to the morning, a dry day is a possibility with variable amounts of cloud and some sunshine may arrive for the afternoon. Breezy from the south-southeast to start the morning with winds perhaps becoming lighter for a time during the day, with some charts suggestng they may veer southwesterly for a time in the afternoon. Milder temperatures.

Tuesday: Breezy from the southeast on Tuesday morning with variable amounts of cloud - but this could be a mostly dry day and it may become noticeably mild in the afternoon if we see some brighter spells and the wind eases - which is a possibility.

Outlook: Wednesday may be a mostly cloudy and damp day, but it will remain mild. A mixed bag of weather for Thursday and Friday with a shower lottery scenario, but there should be some decent drier spells in the mix too - details to be confirmed.

Extended Outlook: The outlook for the period from Saturday 19th October to Tuesday 22nd October ... is for low pressure to be close enough to be the dominant influence on our weather - so a rather changeable period is potentially most likely with some windy and wetter periods in the mix, along with drier and brighter periods.

Charts below are a snapshot from the major models. Note that anything beyond about 5 days is pretty speculative - so treat all extended charts with caution...

GFS at 144hrs copyright Meteociel.fr		UKMO at 144hrs copyright Meteociel.fr		ECMWF at 144hrs copyright Meteociel.fr

GFS at 192hrs copyright Meteociel.fr				ECMWF at 192hrs copyright Meteociel.fr

GFS at 10 days copyright Meteociel.fr				ECMWF at 10 days copyright Meteociel.fr

For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.

Tweets by abersochdotco  

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Useful Weather Forecasting Links:

Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com

BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846

UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk

Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com

Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com

Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv

Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk