Forecast For Abersoch : Monday 11th December, 2023 - Issued at 3.30pm On Sunday 10th December by Chas



Headline Summary: A Mostly Dry Monday Until Evening.


After a spell of rain this morning, it has been a bright and breezy day today, so not too bad at all. Winds yesterday evening gusted above 70mph in the area and we may see gusts in excess of 60mph return for a time this evening. We should see a transient ridge of high pressure bring a mostly OK day on Monday, before the shower risk rises in the evening and the risk of showery spells continues into Tuesday, due to the presence of another low.


Thereafter, high pressure is still expected to being a drier period, though the passage of a weak front could bring a bit of rain for a time on Thursday. The high is expected to be positioned so that we may see a mild breeze coming in from the southwest at the end of the week and into the weekend, which may also result in a mild and rather cloudy theme. Note that where that high ends up could still change a bit, so there is a chance that we may see something chillier and clearer develop...


Sunday Night: Gales from the southwest this evening. Gusts of around 60mph are possible for a time. Variable amounts of cloud but although there is the chance of a passing shower, it should be mostly dry. The gale should ease overnight, with winds veering towards the northwest. Temperatures fairly mild, but perhaps dipping a touch below 10c.


Monday: Less windy on Monday and there is the chance of a dry and bright day with some decent spells of sunshine. Temperatures up to about 10c. Showers arriving on Monday evening, perhaps heavy. Further showers overnight. Fresh to strong southerly winds overnight.


Tuesday: Potentially showery on Tuesday. Winds from a southerly quarter so still fairly mild. Any showers could be heavy - timings of the wetter periods uncertain at this stage.


Wednesday: Perhaps a chillier northerly on Wednesday, but the day should be dry and we may see sunny intervals too.


Thursday: Chance of showers on Thursday morning then drier. Bit of a breeze from a westerly quarter and temps up to 10c.


Outlook: Potentially mostly dry from Friday to Sunday but the details regarding wind directions and strengths for the end of the week are uncertain. There may be plenty of cloud at times during these days, with a southwesterly breeze and it may be mild throughout with temperatures hovering around 11c and not dropping much overnight if those skies are cloudy.


Extended Outlook: The outlook for the period from Monday 18th December to Friday 22nd December ... is for a high pressure to be influential, so potentially mostly dry. There may be too much breeze and cloud for frost.


Charts below are a snapshot from the major models. Note that anything beyond about 5 days is pretty speculative - so treat all extended charts with caution...



GFS at 144hrs
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UKMO at 144hrs
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ECMWF at 144hrs
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GFS at 192hrs
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ECMWF at 192hrs
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GFS at 10 days
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ECMWF at 10 days
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For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.












Useful Weather Forecasting Links:


Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com


BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/


Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846


UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk


Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com


Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com


Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv


Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk