Forecast For Abersoch : Saturday 13th July, 2024 - Issued at 7.20am by Chas




Headline Summary: A Bit Better Today Than The Last 4 Days!

Bore da - Good morning from Abersoch... we did see a brighter end to Friday, but the least said about the rest of the day the better, which continued the dismal run of cool days since we saw that lovely weather of Monday.


Things are looking better for this weekend, which should be a mostly dry one and temperatures could just about get up to 19c or 20c on Sunday, which is expected to see the best conditions of the 2 days. However, next week does look like being generally changeable again, with another low knocking on the door on Monday, but temperatures should be a touch higher than what we have seen this week. The weather for Monday remains finely poised regarding whether we will see any rain or not and I know many are keeping a close eye on that day as it will be the day which sees our friend Farrel O'Shea's last journey from the Golf Road slipway at 9.15am and around the village before making way to the crematorium. A front is expected to be edging up from the south so the risk of showers does look like increasing, but some charts suggest the worst of the weather be to the southeast of us. More on Monday on tomorrow's update...


Today: Saturday: A mix of sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud today with the chance of some decent spells of sunshine developing, however, a rogue shower cannot be completely ruled out. Winds will again have a northerly element, coming down from the northwest, so it will not be any heatwave, but the breeze should be light at times. Air temperatures remaining in the teens C, but sheltered spots should do OK for warmth in the sunny spells. Clear periods overnight.


Sunday: Sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud again on Sunday and there remains a chance that there could be plenty of sunshine on this day and with light and variable in direction winds, it should be warmer too and we may see temperatures get to 19c or 20c. Note there will be some showery rain not that far to the northeast of us here, so the forecast for this day could change overnight but at the moment, a dry day looks to be the most likely outcome.


Monday: Loads of uncertainty. Low pressure is expected to be moving towards southern Britain along with a front moving up towards us. Some charts are suggesting we will avoid much of the rain, however, the situation is finely poised and could easily swing to a damper situation, or to a mostly dry and bright one. One possible scenario is for a dry and bright start to the day, with the shower risk increasing from around the middle of the day onwards. Temperatures should be in the upper teens C, so feeling fairly warm and winds may be light and have a southerly element - but again, there is plenty of uncertainty regarding wind strengths too.


Tuesday: Potentially OK on Tuesday for much of the time, but it will be a shower lottery scenario, so one or two showers cannot be ruled out. We should see some spells of sunshine coming and going and temperatures should be up in the high teens C, so feeling pleasantly warm at times. Winds from the southwest or west and light to moderate in strength.


Outlook: Low pressure may be dominating on Wednesday, bringing some stronger winds from a southerly quarter along with the likelihood of some rain at some stage of the day. Potentially a better day on Thursday, but it may be a shower lottery in the morning. Some charts suggest Friday being glorious, but others have it not so good - so we'll have to see how the charts develop over the coming days.


Extended Outlook: The outlook for the period from Saturday 20th July to Tuesday 23rd July ...remains one of a generally changeable period, with low pressure potentially in the ascendancy, but within that description there is the chance of a couple of decent days.


Charts below are a snapshot from the major models. Note that anything beyond about 5 days is pretty speculative - so treat all extended charts with caution...



GFS at 144hrs
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UKMO at 144hrs
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ECMWF at 144hrs
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GFS at 192hrs
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ECMWF at 192hrs
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GFS at 10 days
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ECMWF at 10 days
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For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.












Useful Weather Forecasting Links:


Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com


BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/


Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846


UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk


Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com


Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com


Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv


Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk