Forecast For Abersoch Issued:
Thursday 27th April, 2017 at 8.30am By Chas


Headline Summary
Some Showers This Morning.

General Situation: With another holiday weekend just a couple of days away, the latest charts this morning are suggesting a mixed bag of conditions, with the main concern being an area of low pressure that may be sat on or near to the south of Ireland on Sunday. This low looks like bringing some strong winds from the southeast or east on Sunday and also a spell of rain, however, the detail of the forecast and also any potential knock on into Monday is still rather uncertain, as small adjustments in the movement of this low could have noticeable implications on the ground - so the forecast below is based on this morning's info, but note that changes could still occur for the Sunday / Monday period. High pressure still looks as though it may dominate the weather from about the middle of next week, with a sunny spell, along with cool winds from an easterly quarter...

Today: After a quiet and bright start, some cloud and showers are expected to affect the area for a time this morning. Thereafter, there may be plenty of dry weather with plenty of cloud coming and going, along with some sunny intervals - with still just the chance of another shower or two. Winds starting off light and from the northwest and these may become moderate during the day, perhaps gusting as high as fresh at times, so not feeling particularly mild, even though temperatures should be up a little on the previous couple of days. Variable amounts of cloud this evening and some clearer interludes too, with the chilly wind persisting.

Tonight: Variable amounts of cloud and still just the chance of a shower.

Friday: Perhaps some morning cloud with still the risk of a shower or two, however, there is the potential for some decent spells of sunshine to develop for the afternoon. Winds becoming lighter and backing towards the west, so if there is some afternoon sunshine, it should feel warmer than previous days. Clear spells overnight and rather chilly early in the night.

Saturday: Winds look like coming from a milder southerly quarter on Saturday and there also looks like being some bright or sunny weather at times during the morning period, which may give way to generally rather cloudy conditions for the afternoon, though staying dry. Winds may become strong later in the day, and the evening and overnight periods could see the shower risk increasing, as the area of low pressure that we mentioned above, starts to become more influential. Southeasterly winds could be touching gale force in the early hours of Sunday.


Outlook: Strong and gusty winds from the southeast on Sunday, varying considerably in strength, but perhaps gusting to gale for a time, with low pressure not far away over the south of Ireland. A front may bring some rain during the day, however, its timing and duration is highly uncertain, with perhaps a dry morning and wet afternoon, though this may change. Overnight, the rain may move away northwards with southerly or southwesterly winds following behind. Bank Holiday Monday could see some decent weather, depending of course on the behaviour of Sunday's low, so at the moment it is looking mostly dry with some sunshine and variable amounts of cloud, with moderate southwesterly winds, however, there remains a chance that the forecast for this day may change. At this stage, Tuesday looks dry with variable amounts of cloud and some sunny spells too, with the risk of showers looking subdued.

Extended Outlook: The outlook this morning for the period from Wednesday 3rd May to Sunday 7th May is for high pressure to dominate the first half of the period, bringing dry and potentially sunny weather, though the position of the high may mean that there is a noticeable and fairly chilly easterly wind blowing at times. Later in the period, it might be a case of more of the same, however, there is perhaps a chance of lower pressure affecting southern parts of Britain, which could enhance the wind and perhaps bring an increased chance of showers - however - it is possible that the whole of this period stays dry.



GFS 00Z at 120hrs
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UKMO 00Z at 120hrs
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ECMWF 00Z at 120hrs
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GFS at 144hrs
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UKMO at 144hrs
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ECMWF at 144hrs
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GFS at 192hrs
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ECMWF at 192hrs
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For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.


For the latest live conditions - check the Abersoch automated weather station in the village (sheltered location).












Useful Weather Forecasting Links:


Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com


BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/


Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846


UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk


Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com


Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com


Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv


Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk