Forecast For Abersoch Issued:
Sunday 24th September, 2017 at 8.55am By Chas



Headline Summary: Showery Outbreaks Of Drizzle / Rain.

General Situation: An occluded fronts is draped down the western side of Britain today and this is going to be of nuisance value for the Abersoch area, as the front will bring showery outbreaks of drizzle and rain from time to time. The front is expected to move away eastwards this evening and overnight with some improved weather expected for Monday and Tuesday, which could see some very pleasant weather at times. Unfortunately, the improved couple of days look like only providing a temporary respite from the influence of Atlantic lows and fronts, with a deterioraion expected during the second half of Wednesday, followed by a changeable few days thereafter, with periods of drier and brighter weather, interspersed with some spells of wind and rain from time to time. There are some differences between the models in the extended outlook, though there are still plenty of indications of low pressure domination from next weekend onwards...

Today (Sunday): Rain or drizzle at times today, showery in nature so some drier spells are expected too, along with spells of persistent rain, especially this morning. Perhaps more in the way of drier spells this afternoon. Winds from the southeast this morning, becoming light and variable in nature this afternoon. Feeling mild. Still a chance of showers this evening.

Tonight: Drier and quiet conditions with some mist possible.

Monday: Perhaps a misty start, however, brighter weather is expected to arrive with some pleasant spells of sunshine during the day, which should feel pleasantly warm in spots sheltered from the mostly light wind from a northerly quarter, which could increase to moderate in strength for a time. Fine weather continuing during the evening.

Tuesday: Dry weather on Tuesday with variable amounts of cloud coming and going, with some pleasant spells of sunshine too, with winds staying mostly light.

Outlook: Fine start on Wednesday with the chance of a wet and windy afternoon. Changeable and breezy on Thursday, though there could be plenty of sunshine at times with the shower risk fairly subdued. High level of uncertainty by Friday, however, fronts may return with a wet and windy spell arriving at some stage of the day.

Extended Outlook: The outlook this morning for the period from 30th September to October 4th is for the Abersoch area to see a continuation of the rather changeable and low pressure dominated weather. Note that there are some differences in the models this morning, especially in relation to the GFS model and its ensembles, however, a changeable and rather windy outlook looks very plausible.


GFS 00Z at 120hrs
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UKMO 00Z at 120hrs
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ECMWF 00Z at 120hrs
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GFS at 144hrs
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UKMO at 144hrs
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ECMWF at 144hrs
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GFS at 192hrs
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ECMWF at 192hrs
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For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.


For the latest live conditions - check the Abersoch automated weather station in the village (sheltered location).












Useful Weather Forecasting Links:


Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com


BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/


Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846


UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk


Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com


Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com


Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv


Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk