Forecast For Abersoch Issued:
Monday 16th October, 2017 at 8.05am By Chas



Headline Summary: Ophelia.

General Situation: With ex-hurricane Ophelia moving through Ireland and towards Scotland today, it is going to get very windy indeed on Pen Llyn and it still looks as though gusts between 70mph and 80mph are possible this afternoon and evening. This morning, there is alot more rain knocking about the Cardigan Bay area than was envisaged and it is not really being picked up by some of the models, so it is wetter than expected at the moment too. Relatively quieter weather arrives for tomorrow and Wednesday before winds increase again later in the week and the models are hinting at another rather unpleasantly windy area of low pressure potentially impacting the area next weekend...

Today (Monday): Showers have been affecting the Abersoch area early this morning and these may continue for a time, however, some drier weather is likely to arrive, however... the wind will also be building in strength, from an easeterly quarter to begin with, veering towards the south by the end of the morning and increasing to gale or severe gale force. This afternoon, winds are expected to increase further and, as mentioned above, gusts from a southerly quarter of between 70mph and 80mph are possible, with these continuing from the south-southwest, then southwest this evening. After the early showers, there should be some dry weather at times, however, further showers are possible this afternoon and evening.

Tonight: Southwesterly severe gales easing down overnight to gale force towards dawn. Clear periods may develop overnight.

Tuesday: Winds will be easing down further on Tuesday morning and a decent sort of day is looking likely with a mixture of sunny intervals and cloud coming and going and it may stay completely dry. Winds should become light and variable later, so a very different day to Monday!

Wednesday: Wednesday may also see some decent weather through the day with fronts affecting areas further south and these fronts may not impact on the Pen Llyn area until Wednesday evening or night, so before then, there could be some dry and bright weather, with winds remaining relatively light. Deterioration overnight.

Outlook: Thursday to Saturday looks like seeing very changeable weather with some rain on Thursday, followed by a brighter scenario with the chance of showers on Friday, before a potentially deep area of low pressure brings the threat of severe gales again for Saturday. It is too soon to be talking about wind strengths for this potential storm on Saturday, however, it looks like being another storm that needs keeping a close eye on.

Extended Outlook: The outlook this morning for the period from 22nd October to October 26th is for low pressure dominated conditions, with a rather windy and mixed bag of weather scenario for the Abersoch area.


GFS 00Z at 120hrs
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UKMO 00Z at 120hrs
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ECMWF 00Z at 120hrs
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GFS at 144hrs
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UKMO at 144hrs
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ECMWF at 144hrs
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GFS at 192hrs
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ECMWF at 192hrs
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For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.


For the latest live conditions - check the Abersoch automated weather station in the village (sheltered location).












Useful Weather Forecasting Links:


Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com


BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/


Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846


UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk


Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com


Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com


Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv


Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk