Forecast For Abersoch Issued: Friday 30th September, 2016 at 8.10am By Chas


Headline Summary
Bright & Breezy. Wet Tonight.

General Situation: Showers have been running through Cardigan Bay this morning, however it's looking like a pretty decent day for the Abersoch area, before some rather unsettled weather arrives tonight and lasts into tomorrow, with Sunday looking potentially very nice. A quick note on the recent media reports of some harsh winter weather on the way towards December, well, the newspaper that often prints such stories seems to do it year after year after year, with its predictions of wintry armageddon not materialising, however, the latest media reports do have an element of professional forecasting behind them. The reason for this is the Met Office Contingency Planners Report for the period October, November and December points towards the chance of some cold conditions arriving from the north or east during November and December - note the use of the word chance, as it is not a forecast as such, just an indication that there is perhaps a slightly higher probability for this to happen, based on various global indicators and also the longer range computer modelling...

Back to the here and now and the outlook charts continue to show high pressure to the east and low pressure stalling out to the west during next week, with the balance perhaps now shifting to the high pressure having the upper hand for a while...

Today: Bright and fairly breezy today with moderate west-southwesterly winds with a mixture of sunny and cloudy spells and the chance of some decent spells of sunshine this afternoon. There is still a chance that a shower could affect the area, however, the vast majority of the day is expected to be dry. This evening, the cloud may increase with some rain arriving at some stage, possibly later in the evening.

Tonight: Showery rain overnight.

Saturday: A wet start on Saturday with rain giving way to showers, followed by generally much brighter and drier weather, possibly arriving during the afternoon period (timing a little uncertain as the showers could be slow to clear), with the chance of a fine and chilly evening. Winds may veer towards a rather cool northerly quarter during the day, perhaps moderate to fresh by late afternoon.

Sunday: Sunday may be a mostly dry day with fairly light winds for much of the time, along with some pleasant spells of sunshine and the sunny weather may continue through the afternoon, with a noticeable southerly wind picking up during the evening. Feeling pleasantly warm in the afternoon sunshine.

Outlook: Monday to Wednesday will see high pressure to the east over Europe with low pressure out to the west and for Abersoch, in between these air masses, there is some uncertainty regarding cloud amounts, however there is a reasonable chance that it may stay mostly dry and mostly bright, though cloud could increase from time to time - but generally OK. The wind may be a feature of with a strong south or southeasterly possible on these days.

Extended Outlook: The trend on this morning's charts for the period from Thursday 6th October to Monday 10th October is for the high pressure out to the east being able to keep the Atlantic at bay for a time, with some mostly fine weather, with perhaps a return to something rather more changeable later in the period.

For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.


For the latest live conditions - check the Abersoch automated weather station in the village (sheltered location).












Useful Weather Forecasting Links:


Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com


BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/


Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846


UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk


Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com


Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com


Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv


Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk