Forecast For Abersoch Issued:
Friday 21st October, 2016 at 8.05am By Chas


Headline Summary
Mostly Fine But A Shower Is A Possibility.

General Situation: The latest precipitation radar images are showing that there were one or two showers knocking about the Pen Llyn area first thing this morning - more on this below. Looking ahead and the weekend looks like being a dry one with winds coming in again from an easterly quarter, especially noticeable during Sunday. Monday may see some rain pushing north, however its not certain yet whether this will affect the Abersoch area...

Today: Quiet start in Abersoch with some cloud overhead and as mentioned above, recent radar images picked up a shower not too far from Abersoch. So, although a mostly decent day is expected with long dry spells, there will be a background risk of a slow moving shower during the day, however, the cloud should break up nicely at times to allow some decent and pleasant feeling spells of sunshine. Clear spells this evening. Winds light or very light today and variable in direction.

Tonight: Clear spells and chilly with perhaps a touch of ground frost in the most sheltered spots if skies remain clear long enough.

Saturday: Mostly fine or fair weather with light easterly winds chopping up the bay with a mixture of cloudy and sunny spells during the day, with the chance of some decent spells of sunshine and it may stay 100% dry. The easterly may increase in strength on Saturday evening and night.

Sunday: Mostly fine again on Sunday with that mix of sunny and cloudy spells and it should stay dry, howerver it looks like being rather windy from an easterly quarter, so very choppy in the bay with some strong gusts coming through.

Outlook: For Monday, the easterly will still be blowing and there is a chance that rain may move north through Wales, however, there is a chance that it may not come far enough north to affect the Abersoch area, so there is a reasonable chance of a mostly dry day. Tuesday is very uncertain, however, fine or fair weather is possible and winds may at some stage veer from an easterly to more of a westerly quarter. Westerlies for Wednesday with perhaps some decent weather at times. though there may be a north/south split across Britain, with the best of the weather to the south, which means Abersoch's location could do OK.

Extended Outlook: The trend on the extended outlook charts from Thursday 27th October to Monday 31st October is for high pressure to the south or southeast of Britain, perhaps extending far enough north to bring some decent weather to Abersoch at times, with low pressure to the north, which could bring unsettled weather to the far NW of Brtain and perhaps a bit further south according to the GFS charts. The charts have certainly moved away from their "northern blocking" area of high pressure, though don't be surprised if they return to this theme in the near future - however, in practical terms for the latter part of next week, it looks as though there could be some decent weather at times in Abersoch, especially if the ECMWF charts prove to be correct.

Abersoch Weather   Abersoch Weather   Abersoch Weather

GFS at 144hrs

UKMO at 144hrs

ECMWF at 144hrs


Abersoch Weather       Abersoch Weather

GFS at 192hrs


ECMWF at 192hrs

Charts used by kind permission of MeteoCiel.fr (all charts (copyright Meteociel.fr).


For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.


For the latest live conditions - check the Abersoch automated weather station in the village (sheltered location).












Useful Weather Forecasting Links:


Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com


BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/


Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846


UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk


Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com


Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com


Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv


Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk