Abersoch
Abersoch


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Forecast For Abersoch Issued: Tuesday 13th November, 2018 at 8.15am By Chas

   

 

Headline Summary: All Eyes On The Outlook Charts This Morning!

General Situation: Good morning - bore da... a drier interlude today before the rain returns later this evening and tonight, along with some strong winds, all due to the proximity of low pressure again and a very windy day is expected tomorrow too. Thereafter, things don't look too bad with plenty of cloud at times to end the week, but it should be mostly dry with some sunny intervals too, along with very mild temperatures. Winds back towards the southeast for the weekend, feeding in clearer air, so a mostly sunny weekend is possible, with temperatures just starting to ease down a touch and this is where things start to get interesting. A glance at the outlook charts below shows the models all suggesting high pressure over Scandinavia to start next week, with an easterly influence and this looks like it could eventually start to drag in some colder air. More on this in the extended outlook section below... is an early taste of winter on the way???

Today (Tuesday): An OK sort of day with some decent spells of sunshine coming and going with patchy cloud blown along on the moderate to fresh west-southwesterly winds, which could gust a little higher at times. Perhaps more in the way of cloud from time to time this afternoon with the low risk of a shower and cloud looks like increasing in general late in the day, with winds backing towards the south and increasing to strong to gale force this evening. Rain is likely during the second half of the evening. Mild throughout.


Tonight: Southerly gales and rain overnight. Mild.

Wednesday: Low cloud and rain or drizzle early in the morning, with a strong to gale force southerly wind blowing. General improvement arriving during the morning with some brighter and drier weather and the afternoon may be dry. Winds remaining strong to gale force through the day, easing a touch in the evening when there should be some clear interludes too, with cloud coming and going. Mild overnight.


Thursday: Fresh south-southeasterlies on Thursday with rather mild temperatures and a mix of cloudy and brighter spells with some spells of sunshine too. Feeling great in any sunny spells in spots sheltered from the wind as temperatures could become very mild indeed. Dry and breezy overnight with mild temperatures continuing.

Outlook: Friday may see southeasterly winds, up and down in strength and perhaps falling light during the day with some cloud and some sunshine with those temperatures still rather mild - perhaps warm in any brighter spells. Generally more in the way of sunshine for Saturday and Sunday, with that up and down southeasterly wind, which may fall lighter locally for a time during the day. Becoming cooler on Sunday, but there should be plenty of sunshine.

Extended Outlook: The outlook this morning for the period from 19th November 2018 to 23rd November 2018 - is for high pressure over Scandinavia feeding in increasing chilly weather off the continent, though there should be plenty of sunshine to compensate during the first part of the period. Some charts suggest the high retrogressisng towards Iceland and Greenland, which if this does happen, brings a higher chance of some genuinely wintry weather later in the period. This is definitely one of those "one to watch" chart developments!


   

GFS 00Z at 120hrs
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UKMO 00Z at 120hrs
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ECMWF at 120hrs
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GFS at 144hrs
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UKMO at 144hrs
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ECMWF at 144hrs
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GFS at 192hrs
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ECMWF at 192hrs
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For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.

   
   

 

   

 

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Useful Weather Forecasting Links:

 

Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com

 

BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

 

Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846

 

UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk

 

Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com

 

Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com

 

Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv

 

Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk