Forecast For Abersoch Issued: Tuesday 6th October, 2015 at 8.05am By Chas

Headline Summary: Fine Start But Becoming Showery.

General Situation: Chanegeble and showery conditions (after a fine start today) are still expected over the next 24 hours and then some mostly fine and dry weather returns for the second half of the week and for Saturday. This morning's models show very different scenarios for the second half of the weekend, which is discussed in the extended outlook below...

Today: A fine start to the day with mostly clear skies and some sunshine and fairly light winds. Further spells of sunshine are expected during the morning, however, the trend is for cloud and showery rain to move up from the south so showers are possible any time from late morning onwards and these rather showery conditions are expected to last through the afternoon and evening. Some drier / brighter spells are possible, however the showery rain may be heavy at times. Winds from an easterly quarter today and staying light at times then a brisk northwesterly arriving this evening.

Tonight: Further showers or longer spells of rain and strong northwesterly winds.

Wednesday: The overnight rain may have cleared by dawn on Wednesday meaning a mostly fine and dry day is expected with some decent spells of sunshine and with brisk northwesterly winds easing down during the day. Feeling cooler than recent days. Chilly on Wedenssday night.

Thursday: Fine weather with plenty of sunshine and mostly light winds. Chilly overnight.

Outlook: Potentially mostly fine for Friday and Saturday with perhaps a noticeable southeasterly wind picking up by Saturday.

Extended Outlook: The trend for the period from Sunday 11th October to Friday 16th October is very uncertain this morning with the models showing very different influences of ex-hurricane Joaquin. The ECMWF charts paint a settled picture with high pressure nudging in from the southwest, followed by a change midweek next week. The GFS and UK Met Office charts however, show Joaquin knocking on the door by Sunday bringing strong winds and some rain followed by a potentially very showey scenario. So, as far as Sunday onwards goes - it's flip a coin time!

For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily between 11.30 am and 1.30pm. They can can be found on this link here.


For the latest live conditions - check the Abersoch automated weather station in the village (sheltered location).











Useful Weather Forecasting Links:


Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com


BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/


Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846


UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk


Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com


Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com


Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv


Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk