Forecast For Abersoch Issued:
Sunday 20th August, 2017 at 9.50am By Chas



Headline Summary: Dry Start / Rain Later.

General Situation: The Abersoch weather remains in a very changeable mode and Saturday saw an increasingly bright day that also had a noticeable and cool wind blowing, that gusted in excess of 30mph. The amount of wind has been a feature of the weather over the school holiday period. Back to today and it has been a fine and quiet start to the morning. A low pressure system that contains the remnants of ex-hurricane Gurt is sending fronts in from the southwest this afternoon, so a wet end to the day is expected with changeable, but generally warmer conditions expected on Monday and Tuesday. Looking further ahead and the changeable period looks like continuing until the end of the week, however, there is just the chance of a couple of decent days coinciding with next weekend, before an area of low pressure potentially arrives for the latter part of the Bank Holiday weekend - although note that levels of uncertainty are very high by the time we reach the weekend, so there remains a chance of a more favourable outlook (or a less favourable one) developing...

Today (Sunday): After the fine and quiet start, the weather is set to turn gradually cloudier and breezier through the rest of the morning and into the early part of the afternoon. Outbreaks of rain are set to arrive by mid-afternoon and we'll keep an eye on the precipitation radar today and post updates on the twitter page in case the rain is arriving a bit earlier, or is delayed. Wet weather this evening. Light winds from a southerly quarter this morning, generally increasing to moderate and backing towards the southeast or east this afternoon and evening.

Tonight: Quite warm and humid overnight with perhaps some rain for a time. Low cloud / mist is a possibility. Winds falling light.

Monday: An area of rain may be uncomfortably close to the north of Abersoch area tomorrow, however, we may stay to the south of this, but it is not all good news as there may also be plenty of low cloud knocking about the area in the morning with some spits and spots of drizzle possible, with perhaps some brighter spells developing in the afternoon. Quite a warm and humid feel to the day. Winds light to moderate and from the south or southwest.

Tuesday: Tuesday may see some decent conditions with lighter winds and quite warm temperatures, so feeling pleasant as there should be some brighter periods mixed in with the cloudier ones. Rain may return on Tuesday night.

Outlook: Perhaps a wet start to Wednesday, followed by drier, bright and breezy weather for the late morning / afternoon, once a cold front has moved through the area. Feeling fresher in brisk southwesterly winds. Thursday and Friday may have low pressure sat close to the UK, feeding in showery weather, along with drier and brighter periods, so that changeable and mixed bag of conditions that has been a familiar feature of the second half of the summer, continues.

Extended Outlook: The outlook this morning for the period from Saturday 26th August to Wednesday August 30th August is for the generally changeable weather pattern to continue. There is a chance, as mentioned above, of a couple of decent days coinciding with the holiday weekend, however levels of uncertainty regarding timings and detail are very high by then - but this is something we'll be monitoring closely over the next couple of days.



GFS 00Z at 120hrs
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UKMO 00Z at 120hrs
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ECMWF 00Z at 120hrs
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GFS at 144hrs
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UKMO at 144hrs
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ECMWF at 144hrs
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GFS at 192hrs
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ECMWF at 192hrs
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For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.


For the latest live conditions - check the Abersoch automated weather station in the village (sheltered location).












Useful Weather Forecasting Links:


Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com


BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/


Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846


UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk


Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com


Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com


Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv


Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk