Forecast For Abersoch Issued: Friday 22nd August, 2014 at 8.10am By Chas

Headline Summary: Mostly Fine, Chilly Wind.

General Situation: The holiday weekend looks like being mostly fine on Saturday and most of Sunday with some bad weather arriving on Sunday evening and night. Bank Holiday Monday could see showers, but there is the chance that the worst of the rain may have cleared through early in the morning, though some uncertainty regarding this (see below).

Today: Some sunshine for Abersoch today with patchy cloud coming and going in the moderate and rather chilly northwesterly winds. There is the chance of a brief shower or two blowing through, but they shoudn't be troublesome and hopefully the vast majortity of the day may stay dry and some decent spells of sunshine are expected to develop, especially this afternoon. During the evening, the risk of showers may increase for a time.

Tonight: Chance of a shower with a mix of clear and cloudy periods.

Saturday: Potentially a fine start to the holiday weekend with a low risk of a shower and plenty of dry and sunny weather. There will still be that annoying northwesterly wind which will have a chilly feel to it and be moderate-ish in strength, so sunny and sheltered spots will do best for warmth eg Abersoch Main Beach!

Sunday: Sunday could still be fine, though high cloud looks like increasing through the day, but it may feel warmer in any sunny intervals as winds go light and variable in direction for a time, before freshening from the south in the afternoon. Although there is still some uncertainty regarding timings, this morning's charts suggest thicker cloud and an increasing risk of rain during Sunday evening or night, with perhaps quite alot of rain overnight and a fresh, possibly strong, south-southeasterly wind.

Outlook: After some rain early on Monday morning, the rest of the day may see a mixture of sunshine and showers, though there is a high level of uncertainty regarding the detail for this day - as a look at the charts suggest it could be OK for much of the time, or further areas of rain may affect the area, due to the proximity of low pressure. There should be a little more clarity on the detail on tomorrows forecast. Mostly fine on Tuesday. Potentially unsettled weather arriving on Wednesday, but then may improve again for Thursday / Friday (uncertainty level very high for end of next week).

Extended Outlook: The latest extended outlook GFS and ECMWF charts are showing the chance of some decent weather for the end of next week and into the following weekend, though at this forecasting range, confidence in this outcome is very low at the moment.

For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily between 11.30 am and 1.30pm. They can can be found on this link here.





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Please note that the automatic rain gauge on the station is currently generally underestimating some rainfalls.










Useful Weather Forecasting Links:


Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com


BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/


Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846


UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk


Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com


Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com


Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv


The Weather Outlook: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.theweatheroutlook.com


Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk