Forecast For Abersoch Issued: Friday 1st August, 2014 at 9.30am By Chas

Headline Summary: Rain. Brighter At Times Later.

General Situation: The charts have deterioated for today and tomorrow since our last update yesterday morning, meaning some rather wet weather is expected for the first 2 days of August. From Sunday, there should be a few days of mostly fine weather again, with a background risk of one or two showers.

Today: It is raining in Abersoch and the rain is expected to last on and off through the morning and into the early part of the afternoon with some heavier periods of rain mixed in. It may become drier and perhaps brighter from the early afternoon onwards, but there could still be a shower or two to follow. Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds easing down to moderate and maybe lighter later. Dry for a time this evening, but the chance of some more rain moving in later.

Tonight: Rain.

Saturday: The latest charts show low pressure sat over us for Saturday with rain to start the day and this may last through into the afternoon. Timing of the clearance of this rain is the one main uncertainty at the moment, but latest info suggests the rain could hang around until mid-afternoon, with a much brighter end to the day possible. There are differences again this morning on what the wind may be doing, with the Met Office suggesting a brisk northwesterlly at times and other sources showing variable in direction winds, which is due to the uncertainties of the forecast position of the low pressure system above us. This difference in modelling the low's position may also have implications for the rain - ie it could clear sooner, or it could end up hanging around longer.

Sunday: A much better day with plenty of sunshine possible on Sunday with moderate southwesterly winds and there is a reasonable chance of it reminaing dry.

Outlook: The weather is looking generally mostly fine for Monday and Tuesday of next week with a mixture of cloudy and sunny periods and although there may be a background risk of showers at times, it may be dry for the vast majority of the time. Differences in the various charts suggest that there is a high level of uncertainty by Wednesday and Thursday with perhaps the continuation of some fine weather, with the shower risk increasing at some stage of this period.

Extended Outlook: The latest extended GFS and ECMWF charts are both showing changeable conditions for the following weekend with low pressure bringing the risk of showers for a time. At the moment, there are no signs of the incredible heatwave that was mentioned in one or two of yesterday's tabloids!

For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily between 11.30 am and 1.30pm. They can can be found on this link here.





For Information On Our Forecasts & Forecaster, Chas Myers - Click Here:


Latest Inshore Waters Forecast Issued From the Met Office
click here...

Surf Conditions at Porth Neigwl : .... click here ...


Local Tide Info - see the home page for the latest tide info...


View "Live" Data From Abersoch Weather Station - click here
Please note that the automatic rain gauge on the station is currently generally underestimating some rainfalls.










Useful Weather Forecasting Links:


Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com


BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/


Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846


UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk


Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com


Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com


Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv


The Weather Outlook: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.theweatheroutlook.com


Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk