Forecast For Abersoch Issued: Friday 29th May, 2015 at 8.05am By Chas

Headline Summary: Brighter After Early Cloud.

General Situation: A mixed bag of weather is expected over the coming days with some dry and bright conditions at times for today and tomorrow and some very windy and wet weather on Saturday evening/ night. The start of next week is looking potentially very unsettled for a time with the chance of a period of severe gales, which is not what you want to see at the beginning of June!
Looking further ahead and the potential fine and warm spell for the second half of next week, that has been hinted at in the model output (and in some media too) over the last few days is not a done deal, with some major changes showing in this morning's charts...

Today: Cloudy start with still some rain knocking about the area however, brighter spells are expected to develop this morning with a mixture of cloudy and sunny spells through the day and perhaps some decent spells of sunshine at times. There will be the background risk of a shower or two blowing through on the moderate to fresh west to northwesterly winds and the wind will have a bit of a cool edge to it. More of the same this evening.

Tonight: Clear spells but the background risk of showers remains.

Saturday: Potentialy mostly fine for the first half of Saturday with light to moderate west to southwesterly breezes and a mixture of sunshine and cloudy spells with the chance of some decent spells of sunshine on the morning. During the afternoon, cloud is expected to increase bringing some drizzliness by the end of the afternoon and some persistent and perhaps heavier rain for the evening and night. Wind may become strong from a southerly quarter overnight and perhaps gale force for a time.

Sunday: The overnight rain may have cleared by breakfast time on Sunday and a bright day is possible with a mix of sunny and cloudy periods and the chance of one or two showers blowing through on fresh to strong west or west-northwesterly winds. Chance of some decent spells of sunshine.

Outlook: Monday is the first day of June and also the first day of summer, however, at this stage it looks far from summer-like with a deep area of low pressure bringing the threat of heavy rain and severe gales. The details of timings etc are uncertain at this stage - however it is one to keep an eye on. By Tuesday, the Abersoch area may be in a cool and showery northwesterly airstream, with some spells of sunshine and perhaps one or two blustery showers. Wednesday may see some mostly fine and less windy weather.

Extended Outlook: The trend for the period from Thursday 4th June to Sunday 7th June is very uncertain this morning with some model output suggesting a continuation of the changeable theme of weather whereas the ECMWF charts are showing the potential for a very fine spell of weather with high pressure dominating and very warm temperatures. Due to the differences in the charts - it looks like a 50/50 call as to whether this fine spell of weather will arrive, or whether a generally changeable (= a more normal) weather pattern persists.

For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily between 11.30 am and 1.30pm. They can can be found on this link here.


For the latest live conditions - check the Abersoch automated weather station in the village (sheltered location).











Useful Weather Forecasting Links:


Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com


BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/


Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846


UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk


Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com


Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com


Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv


Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk