Forecast For Abersoch Issued: Saturday 30th April, 2016 at 8.15am By Chas


Headline Summary
Mix Of Cloudy & Brighter Periods With Background Risk Of Showers.

General Situation: There has been a slight deterioration in the forecast in the last 24 hours in terms of today's weather (see below), however, the rest of the weekend still looks like seeing a trend of a damp Sunday followed by a wet start to Monday, with brighter weather moving in for the rest of Monday. It is also expected to feel generally less cold than recently and there are some hints that the warming trend may continue next week...

Today: Today can be summed up as being a day with a mixture of sunny intervals and cloud coming and going along with a background risk of one or two showers. As mentioned above, there has been a slight deterioration in the forecast for this day in the last 24 hours in terms of the shower risk being slightly higher, which brings with it plenty of uncertainty regarding the detail. So, although there may be prolonged dry periods during the day, that risk of showers may increase from time to time in the area and there is a reasonable chacne of Abersoch seeing one or two of these - and if this does happen, the shower could be quite heavy. Winds moderate and from the northwest this morning, backing southwesterly during the afternoon. More of the same this evening. Still feeling fairly chilly at times today, but OK in any brighter spells.

Tonight: Generally becoming clearer for a time overnight, with cloud amounts increasing again, along with a freshening southwesterly wind.

Sunday: Sunday may see a low pressure area near Iceland and also one to the west of Britain, driving fronts across the UK and across the Abersoch area meaning a mostly cloudy day is expected with rain or drizzle at times. Winds may be strong from the southwest during the day, perhaps increasing to gale for a time. Perhaps drier later in the afternoon and during the evening, but still potentially rather overcast. Southwesterly gales overnight.

Monday: A cold front may pass across the area during Monday morning bringing a spell of heavy rain and gale force southwesterly winds, followed by drier and brighter weather by late morning, which may last for the rest of the day. though there may still be the chance of a shower, but also perhaps with some decent spells of sunshine developing, with winds easing to a brisk westerly. Feeling cool, rather than cold, though sunny and sheltered spots may feel rather nice in the afternoon.

Outlook: Westerly winds with a mixture of sunny and cloudier spells for Tuesday with perhaps a shower or two affecting the area, but perhaps staying mostly dry. Wednesday may see south to southwesterly winds increase, however the daytime period may remain mostly dry and bright. High level of uncertainty by Thursday, however, there are some hints that there could be some decent weather at times and perhaps becoming noticeably warmer by then too.

Extended Outlook: The trend for the period from Friday 6th May 2016 to Tuesday 10th May 2016 is looking potentially warmer at times and although there is some uncertainty regarding how fine it might be, there is the potential for some decent weather at times, according to this morning's charts - so perhaps a step in the right direction towards a return to spring!

For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily between 11.30 am and 1.30pm. They can can be found on this link here.


For the latest live conditions - check the Abersoch automated weather station in the village (sheltered location).












Useful Weather Forecasting Links:


Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com


BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/


Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846


UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk


Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com


Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com


Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv


Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk