Abersoch
Abersoch


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Abersoch

 
 
 

 



 

   


Forecast For Abersoch Issued: Thursday 20th September, 2018 at 8.30am By Chas

   

 

Headline Summary: Becoming Very Wet Today.

General Situation: Good morning - bore da... the severe gales from storm Ali on Wednesday brought gusts of around 75mph to the area, so it did end up being quite a potent storm, however, things are now a little quieter in terms of wind speeds this morning, but it does look like becoming a very wet day! There is some good news this morning in that the models have trended towards toning down the strong winds associated with a storm that was expected on Saturday night / Sunday and next week does now looks as though there may be more of an influence of high pressure, which has the potential to bring some very nice weather at times...

Today (Thursday): Cloudy start with not much breeze. Showery drizzle and rain is set to arrive during the morning, especially late in the morning and the afternoon does look like becoming very wet, with some persistent and heavy rain, lasting into the evening. Winds light and variable at times this morning, perhaps easterly for a time this afternoon and increasing before veering to the southwest this evening and becoming strong to gale force. Drier weather arriving during the evening too, but also with the risk of blustery showers. Still mild.

Tonight: Gales from the west or northwest with a mix of clear spells, cloud and perhaps a shower blowing through.

Friday: Strong to gale force west to west-northwesterly winds on Friday, bringing a mixed bag of conditions with one or two showery spells possible, along with brighter and drier spells, when there should be some sunshine. Feeling fresher.

Saturday: This day remains in the balance with mixed messages from the models this morning - however, we are expecting plenty of dry weather with perhaps the rain staying to the south of the area. Note that as some models have showery drizzle or rain arriving during the morning, whilst other charts suggest drier conditions, it is perhaps best keeping an open mind for this day - but hopefully the models will be more in agreement on tomorrow morning's update. Fingers crossed that the drier scenario prevails - as it is the half marathon and 2K beach blast on Saturday. Winds look like being light to moderate and variable in direction during the day, so not feeling too bad in terms of temperatures. Perhaps some rain overnight along with stronger winds.

Outlook: Strong to gale force winds from a northerly quarter for Sunday, however, the wind strengths appear to have been toned down for this day, which will hopefully be confirmed on tomorrow morning's update, as it was looking like being a rather nasty day in terms of wind speeds. One or two showery spells are possible during the day, along with sunny intervals coming and going. Feeling cool in the wind. Less windy and potentially dry on Monday and Tuesday with perhaps some decent spells of sunshine arriving and feeling warmer too.

Extended Outlook: The outlook this morning for the period from 26th September 2018 to 30th September 2018 - has trended to one with more of a high pressure influence, bringing the chance of some fine weather at times. Incursions coming into the NW of Britain could come down far enough to affect thea area, however, with a bit of luck, this could end up being a decent period.


   

GFS 00Z at 120hrs
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UKMO 00Z at 120hrs
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ECMWF at 120hrs
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GFS at 144hrs
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UKMO at 144hrs
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ECMWF at 144hrs
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GFS at 192hrs
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ECMWF at 192hrs
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For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.

   
   

 

   

 

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Useful Weather Forecasting Links:

 

Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com

 

BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

 

Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846

 

UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk

 

Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com

 

Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com

 

Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv

 

Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk